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Nifty :25005

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

The Indian equity benchmarks extending gains for the seventh straight session, driven by improved sentiment around India-U.S. trade negotiations. Nifty closed at 25005 up 0.13%. Market breadth was in favour of declines, with an A/D ratio of 1:1.3. Midcap and Small cap indices displayed a mixed performance, with midcaps showing slight gains and small caps remaining largely flat. Sectorally, barring IT, Auto and Consumer Durables all indices closed in green. Where, Nifty Oil&Gas and PSU Bank outperformed.

Technical Outlook:

• Nifty opened the day on a negative note and witnessed buying demand near the previous session low and remained mostly range-bound throughout the session. As a result, the daily price action formed a bull candle carrying higher-high-low, signaling inherent strength.

• Nifty is likely to open Gap-up tracking US Inflation print and fueling rate cut hopes .Key point to highlight is that, index marked its highest close in nearly three weeks. Notably, the recent upside price gaps from earlier sessions remain unfilled, indicating underlying strength. The index is now approaching the upper band of the contracting range (25,000–24,400), preserving its bullish undertone despite choppy intraday moves. Going forward, a sustained move above this range could trigger the next leg of the uptrend towards 25,400, which coincides with the 80% retracement of the decline from 25,669 to 24,337

• Going forward, strong support is placed in the vicinity of 24400 being last two weeks identical low and lower band of the contracting range, which indicates a high probability of demand emergence at lower levels and continuation of the primary uptrend. Current consolidation phase presents opportunities to accumulate quality stocks backed by strong earnings, particularly those poised to benefit from next-generation GST reforms and upcoming festive season.

• Structurally, Auto Index witnessed a strong breakout from the weekly Inverse head & shoulder formation, supported by GST reforms. The breakout signals continuation of momentum with scope to retest its alltime high with a 10% upside potential in next couple of quarters.

• On the market breadth front the % of stocks above 50 days EMA has bounced from the oversold zone of 25-30 last week and further improved where it is currently placed at 47 offering incremental buying opportunity.

• On the broader market front, both Nifty Midcap and small cap have been trading in the vicinity of 52-week EMA which has been held since April 2025 offering an incremental buying opportunity.

• Key monitorable:

• a) Development of Bilateral trade deal negotiations.

• b) INDIA CPI

• c) U.S. Dollar index continues to trade below the past two years breakdown area of 100, indicating corrective bias while crude oil sustaining below 20-week EMA and closed the week on a negative note

Nifty Bank : 54669.60

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

Bank Nifty extended its positive momentum for second consecutive day and settled at 54,669 up 0.24%. Nifty PSU Bank index continues to outperform the benchmark, ending the day positive at 7076 up 0.74%.

Technical Outlook:

• Bank Nifty opened the day on a negative note and witnessed supportive efforts emerging near the previous session low and closed at higher side of the day. As a result, the daily price action formed a bull candle carrying higher-high-low, signaling inherent strength.

• Key point to highlight is that index recently consolidated around its 200-day EMA, which held as a key support zone. With this base in place, the Bank Nifty has broken out of its immediate consolidation band (53600-54500), indicating renewed bullish momentum. Going forward, follow through strength above this range will pave the way for further gains towards 55,400, which coincides with the 80% retracement of the recent decline (56156-53561) as well as the 50- day EMA. On the momentum front.

• On the momentum front, weekly stochastic oscillator has witnessed bullish crossover from the oversold territory, with reading of 21, indicating the possibility of a near-term reversal and revival in upward momentum. Hence, any decline from current level should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

• Structurally, since August 2022 there have been five instances where Bank nifty has consistently found support near the 52- week EMA post 10% of a correction and gradual recovery often begins. With the current 7% decline approaching toward the 52- week EMA (52900) and the weekly stochastic entering deeply oversold territory, thereby historical evidence suggests a high probability inflection zone where downside risk is limited

• PSU Bank Index has relatively outperformed the benchmark and closed on a positive note. After initial gains Index has witnessed profit booking near its previous swing high near 7149, indicating breather after a strong up move, however, immediate support is placed near the rising trendline, aligning with the 50-day EMA (6935). Furthermore, the index continues to trade well above its previous multiple swing low support which coincides with the 200- day EMA placed near 6700, signals a broader uptrend is still intact

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