Naturalgas trading range for the day is 243.3-259.5 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold yesterday surged by 1.43% to settle at 1,13,836, scaling a fresh record high above 1,14,000 amid strong expectations of further U.S. rate cuts. Market sentiment was boosted after new Fed Governor Stephen Miran called for aggressive easing, arguing that current monetary policy is overly restrictive and could harm the job market. However, other Fed officials urged caution to avoid reigniting inflationary pressures. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are pricing in two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in October and December, with probabilities of 90% and 73% respectively, lending continued support to bullion prices. On the demand side, central bank buying has rebounded to 63 tonnes, in line with post-2022 averages, further strengthening bullish sentiment. In India, physical premiums climbed to a 10-month high of up to $7 per ounce as festive demand underpinned sentiment despite record domestic prices. By contrast, Chinese discounts widened to a five-year peak of $21–$36 per ounce over global benchmarks, signaling subdued investor appetite, while Switzerland’s gold exports to China surged 254% in August to 35 tonnes, the highest since May 2024. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering with open interest falling by -17.36% to 8,852 while prices jumped by 1,606. Immediate support lies at 1,12,610, with a break lower potentially testing 1,11,390. Resistance is pegged at 1,14,615, and a move above this could open the way to 1,15,400.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 111390-115400.
* Gold hit fresh record high crossing Rs 1,14,000 bolstered by increased expectations of further U.S. rate cuts.
* The Fed cut rates by 25 bps, citing labor market weakness, but warned about sticky inflation.
* Governor Stephen Miran urged deeper cuts, while other officials called for caution.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled higher by 1.13% at 1,35,062, scaling a fresh all-time high of 1,35,500 as expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar buoyed sentiment. The Federal Reserve recently reduced rates and hinted at more easing ahead, citing labor market weakness. However, policymakers remain divided, with some Fed officials urging caution given signs of stabilizing inflation, while new Governor Stephen Miran pressed for deeper cuts, warning of risks to the job market. Investors now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and the upcoming PCE inflation data for clearer cues on monetary policy. Fundamentals remain supportive, with strong industrial and investment demand underpinning prices. Silver demand from solar, EV, and electronics industries continues to lend structural strength. Investment inflows into silver-backed exchange-traded products reached 95 Moz in the first half of 2025, lifting global holdings to 1.13 Boz, just 7% shy of the February 2021 record. Retail investment demand is showing mixed trends — robust in India, where it rose 7% YoY, but still lagging in Europe despite a modest recovery. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping by -7.13% to 17,374 as prices surged 1,507. Immediate support is at 1,33,590, below which levels of 1,32,125 could be tested, while resistance is seen at 1,36,110. A decisive break above may drive prices towards 1,37,165.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 132125-137165.
* Silver rose as buoyed by expectations of more US interest rate cuts as well as a softer dollar.
* Fed officials urged caution on further rate cuts, citing signs of stabilizing inflation.
* According to CME FedWatch, markets see a 90% chance of a cut in October and 75% chance in December.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled higher by 1.99% at 5,632, supported by supply concerns after a deal to restart exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region stalled. Oil producers in the region demanded repayment assurances, delaying the agreement and easing fears of oversupply in the near term. However, broader market sentiment remains cautious, with the International Energy Agency projecting faster global oil supply growth this year and warning of a potential surplus in 2026 as OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers ramp up output. Geopolitical risks continue to underpin the market, with heightened tensions in the Middle East as global leaders gathered at the UN to recognize a Palestinian state amid the ongoing Gaza conflict. At the same time, the EU is considering tougher sanctions on Russian oil, adding uncertainty to supply flows. U.S. inventory data also provided some support, with crude stocks falling sharply by 9.3 million barrels to 415.4 million, well above expectations of a minor draw. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.3 million barrels, while distillates rose by 4 million barrels, indicating mixed demand trends. Refinery utilization dropped to 93.3%, reflecting weaker processing activity. Technically, crude oil is under short covering as open interest dropped -15.67% to 10,947 while prices rose 110. Immediate support lies at 5,510, below which prices may test 5,389, while resistance is at 5,718, and a move above could push prices towards 5,805.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5389-5805.
* Crude oil rose after a deal to resume oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan stalled.
* Tensions in the Middle East remained elevated.
* IEA said world oil supply would rise more rapidly this year and a surplus could expand in 2026
Natural gas
Natural gas yesterday settled higher by 1.56% at 253.6, supported by forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather across the U.S., boosting expectations for firmer demand into early October. LSEG projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, rising from 101.1 bcfd last week to 104.2 bcfd this week. Meanwhile, output in the Lower 48 states averaged 107.3 bcfd so far in September, down from the record 108.3 bcfd set in August, lending further support to prices. On the storage front, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected build of 90 bcf for the week ended September 12, compared to forecasts of 81 bcf. This was significantly higher than both last year’s 56 bcf build and the five-year average of 74 bcf, keeping storage levels 6.3% above the five-year norm, though just 0.1% below last year’s levels. Market participants also tracked Hurricane Gabrielle, now a Category 3 storm, which could influence production and demand trends depending on its path. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects both natural gas output and demand to hit record highs in 2025 before slightly easing in 2026. Dry gas production is projected to rise to 106.6 bcfd in 2025, while consumption is forecast at 91.5 bcfd. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell -19.23% to 14,497 while prices gained 3.9. Support is placed at 248.5, below which prices may test 243.3, while resistance is seen at 256.6, with a break higher opening the door to 259.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 243.3-259.5.
* Natural gas gained amid forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and firmer demand in the coming days.
* However upside seen limited due to ample amounts of gas in storage after a larger-than-expected injection last week.
* Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain warmer than normal through at least October 4.
Copper
Copper prices settled marginally higher by 0.13% at 911.45 as supply concerns and supportive monetary policies outweighed pressure from elevated inventories and weak global economic sentiment. Supply disruptions continue to play a major role, with production still suspended at Freeport Indonesia's Grasberg mine after the recent incident, curbing global availability. Meanwhile, inventories across major exchanges remain elevated. U.S. Comex stocks surged to 318,285 short tons, marking a sharp 241% rise this year, while LME inventories have risen 56% in the past three months. Similarly, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses reported a 12.5% weekly jump, reaching the highest level since June. On the demand front, Chinese consumers are restocking ahead of the week-long national holiday starting October 1, lending near-term support. Looking forward, Citi projects refined copper consumption to grow by 2.9% in 2025 to 27.5 million tons, pushing the global market into a deficit of 308,000 tons from this year’s surplus. China’s refined copper production fell by 5% in early September, removing about 500,000 tons from supply, though gains from Chile’s Codelco and BHP’s Escondida mines partially offset this. The International Copper Study Group reported a smaller surplus of 36,000 tons in June versus 79,000 in May, highlighting tightening balances. Technically, the market is under short covering with open interest dropping by -13.45% to 2239 while prices gained. Support is seen at 909, below which 906.6 may be tested, while resistance is placed at 913.2, and a breakout above could open the way to 915.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 906.6-915.
* Copper gains amid supply disruptions and interest rate cuts.
* Production remains suspended at Freeport Indonesia's Grasberg mine, following an incident in early September.
* Inventories on the U.S. Comex exchange, reaching 318,285 short tons, up 241% this year.
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled higher by 0.38% at 278.9, supported by tightening supply conditions and declining LME inventories. Latest data showed LME zinc stocks fell to 48,825 tons, the lowest since May 23, marking a slump of nearly 80% this year. Adding further strength, the premium of cash zinc over the three-month contract widened to $51 per ton, its highest level since October last year, reflecting near-term supply tightness. However, on the domestic side, China’s zinc production in August reached its highest monthly level since early 2024, and inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 4.9% from last Friday. Despite this, supply-side concerns continue to underpin sentiment. September output in China is projected to dip slightly by 16,400 mt to 609,800 mt amid pressure on smelters to cut production as capacity growth outpaces demand. Earlier disruptions also weighed on supply, with Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine reporting a 20% decline in Q1 output and Nyrstar announcing a 25% annual production cut. Weather-related disruptions such as heavy rainfall in South China also affected smelter operations. Globally, the zinc market deficit narrowed to 27,200 tons in June from 31,400 tons in May, though ILZSG data showed a surplus of 47,000 tons for the first half of 2025. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -12.3% to 1590 while prices edged higher. Zinc finds immediate support at 277, with a break below opening downside towards 275, while resistance is placed at 280.2, and a move above could see further gains to 281.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 275-281.4.
* Zinc gained as LME zinc stocks fell their lowest since May 23 at 48,825 tons.
* Zinc supported as LME cash premium hits $51/T, highest since Oct, on falling stocks
* China's central bank left a key interest rate unchanged, as authorities appear in no rush to ease monetary settings.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled marginally higher by 0.2% at 255.7, supported by strong speculative buying and tightening near-term supply. LME inventories fell sharply, with primary aluminium stocks plunging nearly 100,000 tonnes in the first third of the month to 375,000 tonnes, reflecting quick physical demand. On the production side, global primary aluminium output in August rose 0.9% year-on-year to 6.277 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute, while China’s domestic production increased by 1.22% YoY and 0.33% MoM in August 2025. Global fundamentals remained tight as WBMS reported a deficit of 119,900 mt in July, while the cumulative January–July shortfall widened to 985,300 mt, highlighting a supply gap as consumption outpaced production. In Japan, aluminium stocks rose 6.3% m/m in August, while Guinea Alumina’s license cancellations raised supply concerns for major smelters like Emirates Global Aluminium. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories dipped by 0.6% from last Friday. On the trade front, Chinese exports of unwrought aluminium and related products rose to 542,000 tonnes in July, compared to 489,000 tonnes in June. Imports also climbed, with August volumes at 320,000 tonnes, marking a 12.9% year-on-year increase. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -17.31% to 2116 while prices edged higher. Aluminium finds support at 254.9, with further downside possible to 254.1, while resistance is placed at 256.2, and a breakout above could take prices towards 256.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 254.1-256.7.
* Aluminium gained amid Speculative bullish positions and quick demand for physical aluminium
* Global primary aluminium output in August rose 0.9% year on year to 6.277 million tonnes.
* China’s domestic aluminium production in August 2025 increased 1.22% YoY and 0.33% MoM.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.76% at 12,220, pressured by an increase in acreage as favourable monsoon conditions supported sowing. Preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage may rise by 15–20% in 2024-25, with the total area reaching 3.30 lakh hectares, up from about 3 lakh hectares last year. However, the downside remains limited as recent heavy rainfall in regions like Nanded has damaged nearly 15% of the standing crop, raising concerns over output. Additionally, IMD’s forecast of normal to below-normal September rains in parts of South India has kept growers cautious. In the spot markets, turmeric stocks with farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted, and low arrivals combined with cautious selling are lending support to prices. At Duggirala, fresh crop arrivals are witnessing strong buying interest, consistently fetching premiums over older inventory due to better quality. Trade volumes remain firm, with 1,000–1,200 bags arriving daily, and about 50–55% of the new crop already traded. On the export front, turmeric shipments during April–July 2025 rose 2.29% to 63,020.23 tonnes compared with 61,609.83 tonnes in the same period last year. July exports stood at 15,070.67 tonnes, up 9.31% from June but marginally down 0.27% year-on-year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest falling -3.78% to 15,670 while prices dropped -94 rupees. Support is placed at 12,164 and a break below could see 12,110, while resistance is at 12,290, with further upside possible towards 12,362.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12110-12362.
* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.
* While downside capped as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.
* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12836.05 Rupees dropped by -0.83 percent.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.61% at 19,410 as weak domestic and export demand post the retail season weighed on prices. Traders noted that the conclusion of the retail season and subdued interest from foreign buyers kept demand muted. Comfortable supplies and sluggish overseas buying further added pressure, even as domestic demand is expected to get some relief following the GST council’s decision to lower GST on jeera to 5%, a move likely to support FMCG exports and internal consumption. Market confidence has been dented by weak export demand, despite supply disruptions in other producing countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. India’s jeera production for the current season is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat expected to contribute 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Jeera exports during April–July 2025 dropped sharply by 19.81% to 73,026.35 tonnes from 91,070.02 tonnes last year. July shipments fell 20.83% year-on-year to 13,778.60 tonnes and were also down 15.58% compared to June 2025, reflecting waning global demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest rose 0.42% to 3,606 while prices declined -120 rupees. Support is placed at 19,330, below which 19,240 could be tested, while resistance lies at 19,530, with potential gains toward 19,640 on a breakout.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 19240-19640.
* Jeera prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand.
* In July 2025 around 13778.60 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 16,322.06 tonnes in June 2025 showing a drop of 15.58%.
* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19411.4 Rupees dropped by -0.27 percent.
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