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Gold

Gold prices ended marginally higher by 0.07% at 112,629 as stronger U.S. economic data continued to favor higher interest rates. The U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was revised upward to 3.8%, while durable goods orders surprised on the upside and jobless claims fell to a two-month low. These indicators trimmed expectations of three Fed rate cuts this year, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. However, gold’s safe-haven appeal stayed intact, supported by geopolitical tensions, fiscal uncertainty in the U.S., and sustained central bank demand, with the PBoC adding to reserves for the tenth straight month. On the physical side, India’s gold premiums rose to a 10-month high of $7/oz despite record prices, reflecting strong festive demand. In contrast, Chinese dealers widened discounts to a five-year peak of $21-$36/oz as demand softened, though imports from Switzerland surged 254% in August to 35 tons, their highest since May 2024. Imports into India also increased to 15.2 tons, while U.S. inflows declined sharply amid tariff concerns. Hong Kong and Singapore premiums stayed steady, while Japan traded at par to a small premium. Technically, gold is in short covering mode, with open interest dropping by 48.76% to 3,349 even as prices gained 74. Support lies at 112,120, below which 111,615 could be tested, while resistance is seen at 113,190, and a sustained move above this level may push prices towards 113,755.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 111615-113755.

* Gold settled flat as strong economic data favored higher interest rates.

* US GDP was revised higher to reflect a 3.8% growth in Q2, while durable goods orders unexpectedly rose.

* PBoC piled on gold for 10 straight months, and Chinese infrastructure offered to be a gold custodian for foreign markets.

Silver

Silver prices surged 2.28% to settle at 137,056 as stronger industrial offtake and tighter near-term physical supply outweighed the impact of firmer U.S. macroeconomic data that lifted yields and the dollar. U.S. existing home sales slipped only marginally by 0.2% in August, while Q2 GDP growth was revised higher to 3.8%, the strongest since late 2023. These robust data points tempered expectations for aggressive Fed easing, but silver drew support from industrial demand, particularly from photovoltaic panels and electronics, where substitution remains limited. On the supply side, disruptions in refining hubs constrained refined silver availability, reducing deliverability and pushing up premiums. Investment appetite has also been strong, with silver ETPs recording net inflows of 95 Moz in the first half of 2025, already exceeding the full-year tally of 2024. Global ETP holdings reached 1.13 Boz by June, close to record highs, with their value surpassing $40 billion. Looking ahead, the Silver Institute expects the global market deficit to narrow by 21% to 117.6 Moz in 2025, with stable industrial demand but weaker jewellery and silverware consumption. Demand for coins and bars is projected to rise 7% this year after a steep decline in 2024. Technically, silver is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.67% to 17,394 as prices climbed 3,054. Support lies at 134,190, below which 131,330 could be tested, while resistance is at 138,720, and a breakout may extend gains towards 140,390.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 131330-140390.

* Silver rose as firmer industrial offtake and tighter physical availability outweighed stronger US macro data.

* The dollar index climbed past 98 to a near three-week high, extending gains for the second session.

* Existing home sales in US eased by 0.2% from the previous month.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices slipped slightly by 0.05% to settle at 5,773 as investors booked profits amid concerns over slower winter demand and the expected resumption of Kurdish oil supplies. Pressure also came from expectations of higher output, with Iraq and Kurdistan striking a deal to resume exports in the coming days. Meanwhile, Russia is facing shortages of certain fuel grades as Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted refinery operations, curbing some export flows. On the geopolitical side, Iran confirmed that no new restrictions would be imposed on its oil sales, with shipments to China continuing despite broader tensions over sanctions. From the demand-supply outlook, the International Energy Agency projected faster global supply growth this year and flagged the risk of a surplus expanding in 2026. However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported bullish weekly data—crude inventories fell by 607,000 barrels against expectations of a build, while gasoline and distillate stocks also declined more than anticipated. Refinery runs increased slightly, although utilization dipped to 93%. Net U.S. crude imports surged by 1.6 million barrels per day, indicating a shift in trade flows. OPEC, in its monthly report, maintained robust demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing resilient global economic momentum. Technically, crude oil remains under long liquidation with open interest dropping 3.03% to 10,879. Support is seen at 5,719, below which 5,666 could be tested, while resistance lies at 5,804, and a breakout may push prices towards 5,836.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5666-5836.

* Crude oil edged down as some investors took profits in anticipation of slower winter demand.

* Price pressure also came from bearish expectations on supply fundamentals, with more oil expected soon from Iraq.

* IEA raises 2025 oil supply forecast after OPEC+ output hike decision

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices rose 1.8% to settle at 283.4, supported by forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks. U.S. output in September has averaged 107.4 bcfd so far, down from August’s record of 108.3 bcfd, with daily production on track for a 10-week low of 106.3 bcfd. Earlier record supply allowed robust storage builds, leaving inventories around 6% above the five-year seasonal average. The latest EIA report confirmed a 75 bcf storage injection for the week ending September 19, broadly in line with expectations and significantly higher than last year’s 47 bcf build. This lifted total storage to 3,508 bcf, 0.6% above last year and 6.1% above the five-year norm. Weather forecasts suggest mostly warmer-than-normal conditions into early October, likely supporting near-term consumption. LNG export demand also remains strong, with feedgas flows averaging 15.7 bcfd in September, only slightly below August. Looking further ahead, the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected U.S. dry gas production rising to 106.6 bcfd in 2025 before easing to 106.0 bcfd in 2026, alongside demand growth to a record 91.5 bcfd next year. LNG exports are also expected to climb from 11.9 bcfd in 2024 to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026, underpinning long-term demand growth. Technically, the market is in short covering as open interest dropped 7.7% to 25,090 while prices gained 5. Support is seen at 278.1, below which 272.8 could be tested, while resistance lies at 289.5, and a breakout above may push prices towards 295.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 272.8-295.6.

* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* Average production so far in September slipped to 107.4 bcfd, down from August’s record 108.3 bcfd.

* Energy firms in US injected 75 billion cubic feed of natural gas into storage.

Copper

Copper prices slipped 0.22% to settle at 943.7 as traders booked profits after the initial panic from Freeport-McMoran’s force majeure at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia began to fade. Still, the disruption is expected to tighten global supply. Goldman Sachs trimmed its global copper mine supply forecasts for 2025–2026, estimating a total loss of 525,000 tons, while Citi raised near-term copper price forecasts to $10,500 per ton and sees potential for $14,000 in 2026 amid an anticipated market deficit. On the stock front, U.S. Comex copper inventories surged to 318,285 short tons, up 241% this year, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks rose 12.5% to their highest since June. LME stocks also jumped 56% over the past three months. Ahead of China’s October holidays, consumers have been restocking, though broader activity remains muted. Meanwhile, China’s refined copper production fell 5% in early September, cutting about 500,000 tons from the global market, partly offset by gains in Chile, where Codelco and Escondida reported year-on-year production growth. Collahuasi, however, posted a steep 27.2% output drop. The International Copper Study Group reported a 57,000-ton refined copper surplus in July versus a deficit in June, leaving the market with a 101,000-ton surplus in the first seven months of 2025, smaller than last year’s 401,000-ton surplus. Technically, copper is under fresh selling, with open interest up 2.52% to 6,756 as prices eased. Support lies at 935.2, below which 926.5 may be tested, while resistance is at 958, and a breakout could extend gains toward 972.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 926.5-972.1.

* Copper eased on profit booking from record high as the panic caused force majeure at its Grasberg mine began to fade.

* Goldman Sachs downgrades copper supply forecast after Grasberg mine disruption

* Citi raised its 0–3 month and fourth-quarter copper price forecasts to $10,500 per ton from $10,000.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged lower by 0.05% to settle at 284.9 as traders booked profits after recent gains. The pullback came even as LME zinc stocks fell to their lowest since May 23 at 48,825 tons, down nearly 80% this year. Supporting sentiment, cash LME zinc’s premium to the three-month contract surged to $51 per ton, its highest since October 2024, reflecting tightening near-term supply. However, some pressure emerged from rising inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which increased 4.9% week-on-week, alongside stronger domestic output in China. China’s refined zinc production in August rose to the highest monthly level since Q1 2024, and September output is projected at 609,800 tons, slightly lower month-on-month. Still, the downside remains capped as smelters face pressure from overcapacity and may cut output. Heavy rains have already disrupted operations in parts of South China. Globally, supply signals are mixed—Peru’s Antamina mine expects zinc output to jump 67% this year to 450,000 tons, while earlier cuts from Teck’s Red Dog and Nyrstar reduced availability. According to ILZSG, the global zinc deficit narrowed to 27,200 tons in June, although the first half of 2025 still showed a refined zinc surplus of 47,000 tons. Technically, zinc is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 5.86% to 3,072 while prices dipped 0.15. Support is at 283.5, below which 282.1 could be tested, while resistance is at 287.4, and a move higher may extend gains toward 289.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 282.1-289.9.

* Zinc dropped  on profit booking after prices gained as LME zinc stocks fell their lowest since May 23.

* PBOC introducing measures to support the Chinese economy.

* Antamina mine to see 67% rise in zinc production this year

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 256.15 amid a firmer dollar and subdued activity ahead of the week-long holiday in China. In North America, demand fell by 4.4% YoY in H1 2025 due to weaker exports amid tariff-related pressures. However, supply-side risks are limiting downside, with China’s annual cap of 45 million tons restricting production growth and Guinea Alumina losing all mining licenses, threatening raw material supply to Emirates Global Aluminium. Primary aluminium stocks at the LME fell by nearly 100,000 tonnes to 375,000 in early September, reflecting tightening availability. On the output front, global primary aluminium production rose 0.9% YoY in August to 6.277 million tonnes, according to IAI. China’s production in August grew modestly by 1.22% YoY and 0.33% MoM, while Japan’s aluminium stocks increased 6.3% MoM. In contrast, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.6% WoW, signaling stronger physical demand. Trade flows also reflected robust dynamics, with China’s unwrought aluminium and product exports at 542,000 tonnes in July, higher than June’s 489,000 tonnes. According to WBMS, July 2025 showed a global supply deficit of 119,900 tonnes, with January–July posting a cumulative shortfall of 985,300 tonnes, underscoring tightening balances. Technically, fresh selling was seen with a sharp 24.08% gain in open interest to 4076 while prices slipped -0.45 rupees. Now Aluminium is getting support at 255.2, below which it could test 254.1, while resistance is at 257.4, and a move above may see prices testing 258.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 254.1-258.5.

* Aluminium dropped amid firmer dollar amid quiet trade ahead of a week-long holiday in China.

* China’s central bank chief pledged to use a range of monetary policy tools to ensure ample liquidity, and support the country’s economic recovery.

* The U.S. will soon cut European car tariffs to 15% from the current 27.5%, fulfilling its pledge under the broader U.S.-EU trade deal announced in July

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday gained 1.01% to settle at 12,374 as supply-side concerns and crop damage supported prices. Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded damaged nearly 15% of the standing turmeric crop, tightening availability in the market. However, upside remains capped as turmeric acreage has expanded this season, supported by favourable monsoon conditions. The IMD’s forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in September across parts of South India has added uncertainty for growers, with concerns about crop yield and quality. In Warangal, farmer-held turmeric stocks are nearly exhausted, with no fresh arrivals over the last two days, further aiding firmness in prices. On the production front, preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage may increase 15–20% for 2024–25, with total area recorded at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year’s 3 lakh hectares. At the Duggirala market, strong buyer interest continues, with fresh arrivals fetching higher premiums due to quality, while about 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded. Daily trade volumes remain steady at 1,000–1,200 bags, defying seasonal slowdowns.  Exports also remain supportive, with shipments rising 2.29% to 63,020 tonnes in Apr–July 2025 versus 61,609 tonnes last year. July exports stood at 15,070 tonnes, nearly flat year-on-year but up 9.31% from June. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling 0.87% to 14,895 contracts while prices rose 124. Immediate support lies at 12,244, below which prices may test 12,114, while resistance is at 12,476, with potential to advance toward 12,578 on a breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12114-12578.

* Turmeric gains as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* While upside capped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12943.85 Rupees gained by 0.28 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled lower by -0.31% at 19,350, weighed down by weak domestic and export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. Traders noted that muted buying interest from foreign markets, coupled with comfortable supplies, has pressured prices. Demand continues to remain subdued, with current export requirements being fulfilled from available stock. Farmers are estimated to still hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, of which only 3-4 lakh bags may be traded by the end of the season, leaving an expected carryover stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. On the production front, this season’s output is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, due to a reduction in sowing area. Gujarat’s production is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to contribute around 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, production has been hit in key origins such as China, Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan due to adverse weather, though Indian exports remain lackluster. Jeera exports during Apr–July 2025 declined sharply by 19.81% to 73,026.35 tonnes from 91,070.02 tonnes last year. July exports fell 20.83% year-on-year and 15.58% month-on-month, underscoring weak overseas demand. In Unjha, the benchmark spot market, prices ended marginally lower at 19,285.1 rupees, down by -0.03%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping -1.33% to 3,549. Immediate support is seen at 19,300, below which 19,260 could be tested, while resistance is likely at 19,390, with a move above potentially opening the way towards 19,440.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19260-19440.

* Jeera settled down due to weak domestic and export demand.

* In July 2025 around 13778.60 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 16,322.06 tonnes in June 2025 showing a drop of 15.58%.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19285.1 Rupees dropped by -0.03 percent.

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