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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.47% at 109,033 on MCX, breaking past the 1,09,000 mark to hit a fresh all-time high. The rally was primarily driven by growing market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, following a weak US jobs report. The US economy added fewer jobs than anticipated in August, while unemployment rose to its highest level since 2021, signaling a softening labor market. Traders are now assigning a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, with the market closely watching upcoming US PPI and CPI data later this week for further guidance on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory. China’s gold reserves continued their upward trajectory, reaching 74.02 million fine troy ounces at the end of August, up from 73.96 million in July, as the central bank purchased gold for the 10th consecutive month. Meanwhile, demand for physical gold in major Asian hubs softened amid record-high prices. Indian dealers offered steep discounts of up to $12 per ounce over official domestic prices, and China saw discounts of $12–$16 per ounce over the global benchmark spot price. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping by -3.87% to settle at 17,731 lots. Gold now finds support at 108,480, with a further test of 107,920 possible if selling pressure builds. Resistance is likely at 109,720, and a sustained move above this could see prices testing 110,400.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 107920-110400.

* Gold surged to an all-time high buoyed by growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts through year-end

* The US economy added fewer jobs than expected in August, while unemployment rose to its highest level since 2021.

* China's central bank buys gold in August for 10th month in a row

Silver

Silver yesterday settled down by -0.88% at 124,461 on MCX, amid profit booking after recent sharp gains driven by expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month. The sentiment was initially bolstered by a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report last week, which revealed a sharp decline in job growth in August and a rise in unemployment to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%. These developments confirmed a softening labor market and strengthened the case for a rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point cut, with an 8% probability of a 50-basis-point cut. On the industrial front, China’s solar cell exports surged over 70% in the first half of 2025, largely driven by shipments to India, supporting physical silver offtake in the near term. Safe-haven demand also played a role amid concerns about Fed independence, geopolitical tensions, and trade frictions. Meanwhile, global silver ETP holdings surged to 1.13 billion ounces by June 30, just 7% below the all-time peak of 1.21 billion ounces seen in February 2021. The value of these holdings crossed an all-time high of over US$40 billion in June. Technically, the silver market is undergoing long liquidation, as open interest declined by -1.68% to settle at 17,660 lots. Silver is now finding support at 123,705, with a potential test of 122,945 if selling persists. Resistance is seen at 125,750, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 127,035.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 122945-127035.

* Silver dropped on profit booking after prices bolstered by mounting expectations of Fed rate cut.

* U.S. job growth weakened sharply in August, and the unemployment rate increased to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%.

* Traders have fully priced in a 25-bp cut this month, with an 8% chance of a jumbo 50-bp rate cut.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.97% at 5,544 on MCX, supported by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. The Israeli military’s attack on Hamas leadership in Doha added fresh risk premium to the market, expanding its long-running Middle East military campaign. Prices were already buoyed by OPEC+’s decision to hike production by only 137,000 barrels per day for October, significantly below prior increases, signaling tighter supply management. Additionally, China’s continued stockpiling of crude oil at a rate of 530,000 barrels per day this year is adding to supply tightness. Concerns over potential new Western sanctions on Russia intensified after its largest air assault on Ukraine in recent months. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated readiness to impose tougher measures, while the EU deliberated joint sanctions with Washington. On the supply side, S&P Global expects Brent crude prices to fall to around $55 per barrel by year-end, while Goldman Sachs sees a modest upside risk to their 2025-2026 price forecasts amid supply adjustments in Russia and demand upgrades globally. U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels last week to 420.7 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a draw, as refinery crude runs and utilization rates slipped. Technically, the crude oil market is under short covering, with open interest down -9.02% to 10,698 lots. Prices are finding strong support at 5,495, with a possible test of 5,446 if bearish pressure persists. Resistance is now seen at 5,604, and a decisive move above could push prices toward 5,664.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5446-5664.

* Crude oil rises as Israel attacks Hamas leadership in Doha, expanding Mideast conflict.

* Oil also supported by smaller-than-expected OPEC+ output hike.

* Markets also expect China to continue stockpiling oil, tightening supply further.

Natural Gas

Natural Gas yesterday settled down by -0.47% at 272.6 on MCX amid abundant supply, near-record production levels, and forecasts of milder weather, reducing heating demand expectations. Output in the Lower 48 states averaged 107.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from August’s record of 108.3 bcfd. On a daily basis, production dropped to a preliminary eight-week low of 106.3 bcfd recently, compared to the daily record high of 109.6 bcfd in late July. Despite this slight dip, overall production remains elevated, allowing energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual this summer. During the week ended August 29, 2025, US energy companies added 55 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage, bringing total storage to 3,272 bcf. This build was well above the 13 bcf added in the same period last year, demonstrating how high output has offset both domestic consumption and soaring LNG export levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that both natural gas output and demand will reach record highs in 2025 before declining slightly in 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 0.61% to 22,454 lots. Natural Gas is currently supported at 268.1, with a further test of 263.5 if bearish momentum continues. Resistance is now likely at 278.3, and a decisive move above could open the way for prices to test 283.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 263.5-283.9.

* Natural gas prices fell on near-record output, ample supplies of gas in storage.

* Pressure also seen amid a small decline in flows to LNG export plants, and forecasts for milder weather.

* U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025 before sliding in 2026 – EIA

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 902.35 on MCX, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and a supply disruption at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine. Freeport-McMoRan temporarily halted operations there after a large flow of wet material blocked access and evacuation routes, tightening global supply concerns. This development, along with strong import appetite in top consumer China, bolstered market sentiment. The Yangshan copper premium rose 1.8% to $58 per ton, its highest level in three months, signaling increased demand from Chinese buyers. On the supply front, Chile exported $4.16 billion worth of copper in August, down 2.2% year-on-year. LME-registered copper stocks stood at 155,825 tons, showing outflows of 2,125 tons, while cancellations of 8,500 tons occurred in South Korea. However, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses increased by 2.6% from last week, and Comex copper stocks continued to rise, hitting a 22-year high, due to the lingering premium of Comex over LME copper prices.Global refined copper markets remain in surplus, with a 36,000-ton surplus in June, though lower than May’s 79,000 tons. Year-to-date surplus stands at 251,000 tons, down from 395,000 tons a year earlier, reflecting slower demand growth. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by -4.65% to settle at 5,804 lots. Copper now finds support at 900.2, with a further test of 898 likely if bearish momentum continues. Resistance is poised at 904.2, and a breakout above that could test 906.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 898-906.

* Copper edged up amid weaker dollar and an incident at a major mine in Indonesia.

* LME-registered copper stocks stood at 155,825 tons, with outflows of 2,125 tons across several locations.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose 2.6% from last Friday.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.18% at 275.45 on MCX amid growing stockpiles and steady production despite supply tightening concerns. Inventory of zinc ingots in Guangdong surged to a yearly high of 36,900 metric tons as of Monday, pressuring prices. In the first half of 2025, production resumptions at smelters in South China led to continuous capacity releases. August zinc ingot production in China surged to a three-year high of 626,200 metric tons, though September output is projected to dip slightly by 16,400 metric tons to 609,800 metric tons. Supply-side pressure was accentuated earlier in the year when Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine posted a 20% drop in Q1 output, while Nyrstar announced a 25% annual cut.  Globally, the zinc market showed a deficit of 27,200 metric tons in June, easing from 31,400 tons in May. Yet, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a 47,000-ton surplus in the first half of 2025, signaling overall supply outpacing demand. China’s refined zinc production increased by 3% MoM and 23% YoY in July, driven by new capacity releases despite routine maintenance across multiple regions. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by -5.85% to settle at 3,411 lots. Zinc is finding support at 274.2, with a test of 272.8 possible on further downside. Resistance is now seen at 276.6, and a move above could see prices testing 277.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 272.8-277.6.

* Zinc dropped after Zinc ingot inventory in Guangdong surged to yearly high of 36,900 mt

* China's August zinc production hit a three-year high at 626,200 mt.

* Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories rose 1.2% last week

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.43% at 255.5 on MCX, supported by tightening inventory levels and supply-side developments. LME-registered aluminium inventories fell to a two-month low of 375,025 tons following fresh cancellations of 67,400 tons in Malaysia, which bolstered market sentiment. Global aluminium producers offered Japanese buyers lower premiums of $98-$103 per metric ton for October-December primary metal shipments, reflecting a 5-9% drop from the current quarter, amid sluggish demand. In the July-September quarter, premiums stood at $108 per ton, down 41% from the previous quarter. Supply disruptions continue to add support, as Guinea Alumina lost all mining licenses after Guinea's military-led government transferred leases to a state-run company, threatening the ore supply chain for Emirates Global Aluminum. South32 also announced the closure of its Mozal smelter in Mozambique due to power issues, removing Africa’s second-largest aluminium producer from the market. Globally, the primary aluminium market showed a supply surplus in June, with production at 6.0944 million tons and consumption at 5.9113 million tons, generating a surplus of 183,100 tons. China’s aluminium exports rose to 542,000 tons in July, while imports surged 38.2% year-on-year to 360,000 tons, driven by strong domestic demand. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose by 4.72% to settle at 4,172 lots. Support is seen at 254.9, with a test of 254.2 possible on further weakness. On the upside, resistance lies at 256, and a move above could test 256.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 254.2-256.4.

* Aluminium gains after LME aluminium inventories fell to two-month low of 375,025 tons.

* 67,400 tons of aluminium cancellations in Malaysia reduced global supply.

* Guinea Alumina lost mining licenses; state-run company now controls production.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.21% at 12,072, pressured by increased acreage following favourable rains during the current sowing season. Despite the correction, the downside remains limited as recent rainfall damaged standing crops in major turmeric-growing regions, raising concerns among market participants. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in September for parts of South India added to the cautious sentiment. At the same time, low inflows and cautious selling provided underlying support, helping contain sharper losses. On the supply side, turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted, with no fresh arrivals over the past two days. At the Duggirala market, fresh crop arrivals continued to see strong buyer interest, with new stock commanding a premium over older inventory due to superior quality. Daily trade volumes remained robust, ranging from 1,000 to 1,200 bags (70 kg each), defying typical end-of-season slowdowns. On the export front, turmeric exports during April–June 2025 rose by 3.12% to 47,949.56 tonnes compared to the same period last year. However, exports in June saw a sharp drop of -7.93% year-on-year and -28.21% month-on-month. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by -0.29% to settle at 17,485 lots. Support is now seen at 11,914, with a potential test of 11,758 if selling intensifies. Resistance stands at 12,212, and a sustained breakout above could push prices toward 12,354.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11758-12354.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However downside seen limited as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* IMD forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in September in some parts of South India has raised concerns for turmeric growers.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13269.95 Rupees dropped by -0.64 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 19,385, supported by the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5%. This move is expected to bolster FMCG exports and domestic demand, offering some price support. However, the upside remained limited amid weak domestic and export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. Traders noted that the end of the retail season, combined with inactivity from foreign buyers, weighed on sentiment. Farmers still hold approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3-4 lakh bags are likely to be traded by season-end, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Current production is expected to mirror last year’s levels, supported by good sowing conditions. Production estimates for the current season suggest 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags in the previous year. Specifically, Gujarat is estimated to yield 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is projected to produce 48-50 lakh bags. Global production is also facing downward revisions due to adverse weather, with China’s production dropping to 70-80 thousand tons from earlier estimates of 1 lakh tons. Jeera exports in April-June 2025 dropped by 19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes compared to the previous year. June exports rose 10.26% year-on-year but fell 29.67% month-on-month. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by -10.25% to settle at 3,387 lots. Support is seen at 19,290, with a possible test of 19,180 if selling intensifies. Resistance lies at 19,490, and a breakout above may see prices testing 19,580.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19180-19580.

* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand.

* While comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* Demand is low and the current export business is being met from the available stock.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19858.3 Rupees dropped by -0.5 percent.

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