U.S. Soybean Outlook 2025/26: Higher Stocks, Lower Exports by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The 2025/26 U.S. soybean outlook shows higher production, increased crush, and lower exports, resulting in higher ending stocks. Production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, with harvested area up 0.2 million acres but slightly lower yields at 53.5 bushels per acre. Crush is raised by 15 million bushels due to stronger soybean meal exports, while exports fall by 20 million bushels amid competition from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Ending stocks rise to 300 million bushels. Globally, soybean production and crush are slightly reduced, but exports increase, particularly from Argentina, Russia, and Canada, keeping global ending stocks slightly lower.
* U.S. soybean production projected at 4.3 billion bushels.
* Crush forecast increased by 15 million bushels.
* Exports reduced 20 million bushels due to global competition.
* Ending stocks raised to 300 million bushels.
* Global soybean stocks reduced to 124 million tons.
The U.S. soybean market for 2025/26 is set to see higher production and increased stocks, though exports are expected to decline. Production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, slightly higher than last month due to increased harvested area, which is up 0.2 million acres. However, the yield is slightly lower at 53.5 bushels per acre. The crush forecast is raised by 15 million bushels, driven by stronger soybean meal exports, reflecting continued demand for protein meals in key global markets.
Soybean exports, however, are projected to decline by 20 million bushels amid rising competition from major producers such as Russia, Canada, and Argentina. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are expected to increase to 300 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is forecast at $10 per bushel, slightly down $0.10 from the previous month. Soybean meal and oil prices remain steady at $280 per short ton and 53 cents per pound, respectively.
Globally, oilseed production is slightly higher, driven by rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed gains, although global soybean production is slightly reduced to 425.9 million tons. Higher exports from Argentina, Russia, and Canada partly offset lower U.S. shipments. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 124 million tons, down 0.9 million tons from last month.
Overall, U.S. soybeans see upward stock pressure due to reduced exports, while global dynamics highlight stronger competition, influencing international prices.
Finally, the 2025/26 outlook suggests cautious optimism for U.S. soybeans, with rising stocks supporting supply but increased global competition keeping export performance and prices under pressure.
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