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Below the Perspective on Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, U.S Dollor, Indian Rupee, Euro and Pound by Ms. Riya Singh, Emkay Global Financial Services

Gold

Gold extended its record-breaking rally last week, with spot prices climbing close to $3,600/oz and futures surpassing $3,650/oz, underpinned by dovish Federal Reserve expectations and a string of weak U.S. labor market data. The metal opened the week below $3,450/oz but swiftly vaulted past the previous $3,500/oz high, gaining more than 4% in the first week of September and taking year-to-date gains above 36%. Momentum was amplified by safe-haven demand as geopolitical risks intensified, including fresh Russian strikes across Ukraine and retaliatory attacks on energy facilities. Disappointing U.S. economic releases further fueled the rally: weekly jobless claims rose to 237K, ADP payrolls increased just 54K against expectations of 65K, and August nonfarm payrolls delivered a meager 22K rise versus forecasts of 75K, alongside a higher unemployment rate of 4.3%, the weakest employment stretch since the pandemic. Treasury yields fell sharply on the data, with the 10-year dropping below 4.2%, and the U.S. dollar retreated, deepening bullish conviction in gold as investors priced in an almost certain 25 bps September rate cut, with rising probabilities of a more aggressive 50 bps move. On the flows side, global gold ETFs registered $5.5bn of inflows in August, the third straight monthly rise, pushing total holdings up to 3,692 tons and assets under management to a record $407bn. While technical gauges signal overbought conditions, with gold advancing over 6% in just seven sessions, the broader backdrop of Fed easing expectations, political pressure on U.S. monetary independence, and intensifying geopolitical tensions continues to anchor the bullish trajectory. This week, attention shifts to U.S. inflation prints (PPI and CPI), which may determine whether momentum extends toward higher levels or consolidates ahead of the September 16–17 FOMC meeting. For MCX, gold is already trading at highs and can test 110000 with support at 106000 – 104000.

Silver

Silver recovered from early losses to climb back to $41.17/oz in the Asian session on Monday, rebounding from $40.65 as dip-buying emerged on expectations of imminent U.S. rate cuts. Friday’s weak labor data , just 22K jobs added in August versus expectations of 75K and unemployment rising to 4.3% , reinforced bets for at least three 25 bps cuts this year, undermining the dollar and lowering Treasury yields, both supportive for bullion. Structural tightness is also underpinning prices, with London lease rates spiking above 5% amid dwindling inventories and persistent ETF inflows, while Comex futures continue to command a $0.70 premium to London spot as traders rush metal into the U.S. ahead of potential tariff actions. CFTC data adds to the bullish tone, showing money managers raised net-long positions by 6,817 lots to 41,022, the most bullish stance in five weeks, as shorts fell to their lowest in three months. With silver up over 40% year-to-date, supported by both haven flows and industrial demand from clean-energy sectors, any dips are likely to attract buyers, though tariff and geopolitical headlines may continue to inject volatility. On MCX, 127000 will act as a crucial resistance, whereas 122000 is an immediate support. If resistance breakout is achieved and sustained, silver will be on path to make new highs at 135000. For Silver to test the support trading below 124000 should be sustained.

Copper

Copper steadied as markets digested weaker U.S. employment data that bolstered expectations of faster Fed rate cuts, a dynamic that could enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like industrial metals. On the London Metal Exchange, copper futures ended last week largely unchanged, reflecting a tug-of-war between softer macro data and resilient demand signals. The August U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed just 22,000 jobs added versus 75,000 expected, while unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. This has pushed markets to price in nearly certain easing at the Fed’s September meeting, with bets rising for deeper cuts into year-end. Meanwhile, attention now turns to U.S. inflation data this week, alongside China’s CPI and PPI releases, for fresh cues on demand and monetary policy. China’s import data also offered mixed signals for copper. Customs figures showed copper ore and concentrate imports surged 7.9% YTD to 20.05m tons, with August volumes at 2.76m tons, the second-highest on record, boosted by Indonesian supply and domestic smelter expansion. However, imports of unwrought copper and products fell to a six-month low of 0.43m tons, even if marginally higher than a year ago, reflecting subdued end-use demand amid lingering property sector weakness and overcapacity concerns. Broader commodity inflows, including crude oil at 49.49m tons (+4.8% m/m) and iron ore at 105.23m tons, underscored seasonal restocking ahead of autumn industrial activity. Still, deflationary pressures and trade frictions with the U.S. continue to cloud the outlook.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices remain under pressure after OPEC+ reaffirmed its strategy to restore idled capacity, adding 137,000 barrels per day in October as part of its market-share offensive. While Brent briefly climbed above $66/bbl and WTI neared $63/bbl on Monday, this uptick looks vulnerable given the looming supply glut. The group’s decision, taken in an 11-minute meeting, highlights its pivot away from price defense toward reclaiming market share, with U.S. shale producers in the crosshairs. However to truly bite, oil would need to hold in the low-$50s , well below the fiscal breakeven levels of several OPEC members. Inventory data reinforced demand-side fragility. The API reported a crude build of 622,000 barrels in the week ended Aug. 29, defying consensus for a 3.4 million barrel draw, while gasoline stocks fell 4.57 million barrels and distillates rose 3.68 million barrels. Broader EIA forecasts point to a 2-million-barrel crude draw, but rising distillate and crude inventories hint at weaker consumption post-summer. With the IEA projecting a record surplus in 2026 and Goldman Sachs forecasting Brent could slide into the low-$50s, the risk bias for crude remains tilted lower. Political overlays, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s planned Washington visit in November and President Trump’s repeated calls for lower fuel costs, underscore the policy pressures shaping supply. China’s strategic stockpiling of around 200,000 bpd has helped cushion demand, but it may be insufficient to absorb the incoming wave of OPEC+ barrels. Absent a pickup in global demand or significant compliance slippage within the alliance, crude risks sliding toward sub-$60 levels into early 2026. For MCX, 5500 – 5400 looks like a pivot level for the week.

Natural Gas

U.S. natural gas markets remain weighed by abundant supply and seasonally mild weather, with inventories climbing 55 Bcf last week to 3,272 Bcf, leaving stocks 173 Bcf above the five-year average though still 73 Bcf below last year’s level. Injections have consistently outpaced seasonal norms through summer, supported by record LNG feedgas demand and weaker power-sector consumption, with September gas burns forecast 1.1 Bcf/d lower YoY amid a sharp decline in cooling degree days. October balances are expected to tighten as heating demand emerges, yet near-term conditions point to oversupply risks, keeping prices subdued after the latest pullback. Regionally, storage builds were strongest in the East and Midwest (+28 Bcf each). Globally, Europe’s benchmark TTF contracts edged higher as buyers seek to attract LNG cargoes ahead of winter, while China has completed its massive pipeline expansion program ahead of schedule, lifting gas transmission capacity to 412 bcm and cutting fees by 5%. China’s quiet moves to import sanctioned Russian LNG could free up global supply for Europe, but competition for cargoes may intensify once Asian demand recovers in winter. Meanwhile, cooler forecasts for mid-September across key U.S. regions reinforce the short-term bearish backdrop, with traders increasingly cautious about sustained upside in the absence of a weather-driven demand spike.

U.S Dollor

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure after sinking to a near three-week low last Friday, with the Dollar Index (DXY) bottoming at 97.43 as weak labor market data cemented expectations of imminent Fed easing. August nonfarm payrolls showed a mere 22K jobs added versus forecasts of 75K, while July’s figure was revised to 79K. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, reinforcing bets for a 25 bps cut at the Sept. 17 FOMC meeting, with FedWatch showing a 92% probability, alongside rising chatter of a deeper 50 bps move. Markets are now pricing in ~70 bps of cuts by year-end and 150 bps by end-2026, underscoring conviction in an extended easing cycle. Treasury yields slid sharply across the curve, with 2-year notes back to 3.6% and 10-years near 4.18%, levels last seen in early spring. Political risks add another layer, with President Trump intensifying attacks on the Fed and seeking greater influence over its board, raising fears of a more politicised central bank. At Jackson Hole, Powell shifted tone toward labor market risks, hinting at room for cuts if weakness persisted. The dollar’s medium-term outlook looks fragile, with structural headwinds from tariff-driven uncertainty, geopolitical strains, and a Fed increasingly focused on employment over inflation. Near term, markets await Thursday’s CPI and PPI releases, which could either reinforce or temper expectations of aggressive easing. Unless inflation surprises sharply higher, the dollar is likely to remain capped below 98, with risks skewed toward further softness.

Indian Rupee

The Indian Rupee began the week on a firmer note, with USD/INR correcting to 88.25 after briefly touching a new lifetime high above 88.50 on Friday, a move that reportedly prompted RBI intervention to stabilize the currency. Despite the pullback, the broader outlook remains fragile as FII outflows persist amid heightened U.S.–India trade tensions. Washington’s decision in August to raise tariffs on Indian imports to 50% over purchases of Russian oil continues to weigh on sentiment, even as President Trump struck a conciliatory tone on Friday, highlighting the special relationship between the two nations. From a technical standpoint, the near-term bias in USD/INR stays bullish, with critical support at 87.80, while resistance is seen at the psychological 89.00 handle, which remains the next target if bullish momentum resumes.

Euro

The euro retreated modestly to 1.1710 on Monday, giving back some of Friday’s sharp gains as the U.S. dollar steadied following last week’s weak labor market print. The U.S. economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, well below the consensus of 75,000 and down from July’s revised 79,000, while the jobless rate ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%. Wages advanced 0.3% MoM, broadly in line with expectations. The soft report has cemented expectations for Fed easing, with futures markets now pricing a 92% chance of a 25 bps cut on Sept. 17, and rising bets for a deeper 50 bps move. In contrast, the focus in Europe is on the ECB meeting this Thursday, where policymakers are widely expected to leave policy unchanged for a second meeting in a row amid steady growth and inflation near target. Data showed the Eurozone economy expanded 0.1% QoQ in Q2 (1.5% YoY), while industrial production rebounded 1.3% MoM in July, reversing June’s 1.9% decline. German GDP is projected to grow by just 0.2% in 2025, but signs of stabilization are emerging. With the Fed tilted toward cuts and the ECB likely on hold, relative policy expectations continue to underpin the euro, though momentum will hinge on this week’s ECB communication and upcoming U.S. inflation data.

Pound

Pound steadied near 1.35 in Monday’s sessions, underpinned by a stronger-than-expected 0.5% rise in UK retail sales for July (vs. 0.3% forecast), though revisions to past data due to seasonal adjustment errors highlighted softer underlying momentum. Sterling managed to reverse two straight weeks of losses, closing last week above the 1.3500 handle, but upside traction remains constrained by concerns over the UK’s fiscal outlook, with gilt markets roiled ahead of Chancellor Reeves’ Autumn Budget in November. Long-dated yields have surged to their highest since 1998, reflecting investors’ skepticism about fiscal sustainability. The BoE’s recent cut to 4.00% was a close call and its guidance implied that an aggressive easing cycle is unlikely in the near term, particularly as CPI rose 3.8% YoY in July, with core inflation steady at 3.8% and services inflation elevated at 5.0%. Policymakers remain divided: Governor Bailey has stressed caution, while hawkish members argue that expectations risk becoming entrenched. Markets are now only pricing in around 26 bps of easing by March 2026, suggesting the BoE will move slowly. GBP/USD resistance lies at 1.3594 (Aug 14 high), with further gains eyeing 1.3788 (July 1 peak), while initial support sits at 1.3332 (Sept 3 low), ahead of the 1.3140 zone. This week’s lighter UK calendar (BRC Retail Sales Monitor on Sept 9) gives way to a heavy data slate on Sept 12, which may set the tone for the pound.

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