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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.36% at 109,370, supported by expectations of looser US monetary policy. Recent US economic data indicated persistent inflation at expected levels, while producer prices unexpectedly dropped and jobless claims surged to their highest level in four years. These indicators reinforced market anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, with increasing speculation about a larger easing move. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continued to provide safe-haven support for gold. Reports emerged that the US is urging G7 allies to impose higher tariffs on India and China over Russian crude imports. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East intensified, and Poland intercepted Russian drones violating its airspace amid heavy attacks in western Ukraine. Physical gold demand in major Asian markets remained muted as record-high prices dissuaded retail purchases. Dealers in China offered steep discounts of $17-$24 per ounce over global benchmark spot prices, reaching nine-month highs. India saw mixed pricing, with discounts of $6 and premiums of $2 per ounce. Technically, the market is under short covering, as open interest dropped by -3.77% to settle at 15,962 contracts. Prices rose by 389. Gold is currently finding support at 109,115, with a further test of 108,850 likely if support breaks. Resistance is seen at 109,650, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 109,920.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 108850-109920.

* Gold climbed amid expectations of looser US monetary policy held firm.

* Gold also continued to draw safe-haven support from geopolitical uncertainties.

* US data showed that the annual inflation rate remained steady as expected, following an unexpected drop in producer prices.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.5% at 128,838, driven by firm expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Recent US economic data revealed consumer prices rising by 0.4% in August, marking the fastest pace in seven months, while producer prices unexpectedly declined earlier in the week. Jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since 2021, signaling labor market weakness. Markets now price in about a 93% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, with growing odds for a larger half-point reduction. Safe-haven demand further supported silver amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. On the industrial front, robust demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics sectors contributed to physical silver market tightness, against a backdrop of persistent supply constraints. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 55.4 in September 2025, down from 58.2 in August and below expectations, reflecting growing concerns over business conditions, jobs, and inflation. Investment demand remained strong as net inflows into silver ETPs hit 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, surpassing the full-year inflows of 2024. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, as open interest rose by 0.69% to 18,712 contracts. Silver is currently supported at 127,830, with a further test of 126,820 if bearish pressure persists. On the upside, resistance is likely at 129,620, and a break above this level could target 130,400.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 126820-130400.

* Silver gained as firm expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week supported buying.

* Safe-haven demand further underpinned precious metals amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

* US data showed consumer prices rising 0.4% in August, the fastest pace in seven months.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled marginally down by -0.05% at 5526, amid mixed market signals. Prices initially gained after a major Ukrainian drone attack targeted Russia’s Primorsk port, the largest oil terminal in western Russia, suspending loadings and pumping operations to Ust-Luga. Although the extent of the disruption remains unverified, the attack raised supply risk concerns, supporting prices temporarily. However, broader market sentiment remained cautious, mainly due to soft US demand indicators and expectations of a Fed rate cut, which could potentially boost crude oil consumption in the medium term. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed crude inventories rising by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, significantly higher than the expected 1 million-barrel draw. Gasoline inventories also rose by 1.5 million barrels, and distillate stockpiles increased by 4.7 million barrels, signaling weak demand in the US market. OPEC’s monthly report projected solid global demand growth for 2025–26 and confirmed no changes in their high demand estimates. OPEC+ raised crude output by 509,000 barrels per day in August, reflecting its commitment to increasing market share, while Saudi Arabia is boosting crude exports to China to 1.65 million barrels per day in October. Technically, the crude oil market is under long liquidation, as open interest dropped by -29.48% to 6550 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 5437, with a further test of 5349 if bearish momentum continues. On the upside, resistance lies at 5630, and a decisive move above could test 5735.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5349-5735.

* Crude oil dropped amid concerns about U.S. demand

* The IEA projected stronger global supply this year as OPEC+ boosts output

* OPEC maintained solid demand forecasts for 2025–26.

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled up by 0.27% at 261.4 amid expectations of warmer-than-normal weather, supporting late-summer air conditioning demand in the coming weeks. Forecasts indicate that the weather will remain hotter than usual at least until September 27, which should boost gas consumption by power generators to keep air conditioners running. Average gas output in the Lower 48 states slipped to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day in early September, slightly below August’s record of 108.3 bcfd. This year’s record output has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than typical, with storage levels now about 6% above the five-year average. Energy firms injected 71 bcf of gas into storage in the week ending September 5, surpassing the expected 68 bcf and much higher than the 36 bcf increase during the same week last year. Storage remained 1.1% below last year’s level but comfortably above the five-year average. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected dry gas production to rise to a record 106.6 bcfd in 2025 before easing slightly in 2026. Similarly, gas consumption is forecast to peak at 91.5 bcfd in 2025, up from 90.5 bcfd in 2024.  Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by -9.52% to settle at 28,109 contracts. Prices gained 0.7, signaling positive momentum. Immediate support lies at 256.6, and a further dip could test 251.9. On the upside, resistance is likely seen at 265.6, with a strong breakout above potentially pushing prices toward 269.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 251.9-269.9.

* Natural gas rises on forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather boosting AC demand.

* Data showed a larger-than-expected 71 bcf storage build, compared with a five-year average of 56 bcf.

* Average output in Lower 48 states fell to 107.4 bcfd in September

Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.09% at 913.85 amid ongoing supply constraints and tightening LME inventories. China reported a notable 5% drop in September refined copper production, cutting approximately 500,000 tonnes from the global supply. This reduction came at a time when inventories are hovering near multi-year lows, with London Metal Exchange stockpiles about 40% below the five-year average. Further supply disruption occurred as Freeport-McMoRan confirmed the ongoing shutdown of its Grasberg mine in Indonesia due to a tragic accident and continued rescue efforts. On the demand front, sentiment was supported by expectations of looser US monetary policy, as softer labor data and moderate inflation increased market bets on a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut during the upcoming meeting on September 17, with rising odds of a half-point reduction. In China, import appetite remained strong, with the Yangshan copper premium rising 1.8% to $58 per ton, its highest in three months. China’s imports of copper concentrate rose 8% in August to 2.76 million tons, reflecting higher demand ahead of expiring export licenses in Indonesia.  Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by -7.03% to settle at 5,594 contracts. Prices inched up by 0.85. Immediate support is placed at 911.4, with a further dip likely to test 908.8. Resistance is seen at 918.2, and a successful breach could push prices toward 922.4, signaling potential bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 908.8-922.4.

* Copper prices gained as tightening global supply underpinned prices.

* China reported around a 5% drop in September production, cutting about 500,000 tonnes of refined copper.

* The decline comes as inventories remain near multi-year lows, with LME stockpiles about 40% below their five-year average.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.29% at 279.9, supported by investor expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut and supply concerns. The U.S. dollar weakened after a rise in jobless claims and a modest inflation increase, reinforcing market bets on a Federal Reserve rate reduction next week. Meanwhile, China’s Finance Minister Lan Foan announced plans to deepen fiscal reforms and utilize policy tools to boost consumption and investment, aiming to sustain economic growth amid global uncertainties. Zinc stocks in LME registered warehouses declined sharply by nearly 75% since mid-April, now standing at 50,825 tons. Additionally, cancelled warrants suggest another 15,375 tons are likely to leave the LME system, further tightening supply. This scarcity has led to a backwardation situation, where the cash contract trades around $18 a ton over the three-month forward, indicating immediate demand pressure. On the production front, H1 2025 saw capacity releases from South Chinese smelters, but September output is expected to dip slightly by 16,400 metric tons to 609,800 metric tons. Despite this, the downside appears limited due to potential capacity cuts by miners and refiners. Earlier this year, notable production cuts occurred—Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine posted a 20% drop in Q1 output, and Nyrstar announced a 25% annual reduction. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling by -1.63% to settle at 3,622. Prices gained 0.8. Immediate support is seen at 278, with a further test of 276.1 likely. Resistance is at 281.2, and a breakthrough above this could see prices testing 282.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 276.1-282.5.

* Zinc gains fuelled by investor expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and concern over possible supply shortages.

* China to deepen fiscal reforms, use policy tools to support consumption, investment

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 8.8% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled up by 0.42% at 261.15, supported by speculative bullish positions and strong demand for physical metal. Primary aluminium stocks in the LME declined sharply by nearly 100,000 tonnes in the first third of the month, falling to 375,000 tonnes amid tight supply concerns. A significant development was the loss of all mining licenses by Guinea Alumina, after Guinea’s military-led government transferred leases to a state-run entity. Despite these supply constraints, the global primary aluminium market experienced a surplus in June, with production at 6.0944 million tons against a consumption of 5.9113 million tons, leading to a surplus of 183,100 tons. However, production continued rising, with global primary aluminium output in July increasing 2.5% year-on-year to 6.373 million tonnes, as reported by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Meanwhile, European markets remain strained due to sanctions on Russia, a key global producer, and rising aluminium scrap exports from the EU, which hit a record 1.26 million metric tons in 2024, mostly sent to Asia. China remains a major player in both imports and exports of aluminium. In July, China exported 542,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and related products, up from June, while imports surged by 38.2% from the previous year, totaling 360,000 tonnes. Technically, the market is under fresh buying momentum. Open interest increased by 6.92% to settle at 4,741, with aluminium prices up by 1.1. Immediate support is seen at 259.9, with a further test of 258.6 possible. Resistance is likely at 261.9, and a breakout above this could push prices towards 262.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 258.6-262.6.

* Aluminium gained as speculative bullish positions and quick demand for physical aluminium.

* EU aluminium sector urges 30% export duty on scrap metal to protect local producers.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.3% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -1.86% at 12,358 amid a notable increase in acreage, supported by favourable rains during the current sowing season. However, the downside remained limited as heavy recent rainfall caused damage to standing turmeric crops in key growing regions. In particular, Nanded witnessed significant crop damage, with around 15% of the turmeric area adversely affected. Additionally, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast normal to below-normal rainfall in September in some parts of South India, raising further concerns for turmeric growers. Despite these challenges, turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted, and fresh arrivals have remained scarce over the past two days. Market participants are closely tracking weather patterns and crop progress, while low arrivals and cautious selling continue to support price stability. On the production side, dry weather conditions are aiding timely planting, with preliminary estimates indicating a 15-20% increase in turmeric acreage this season, as other crop options show lower profitability. For the 2024-25 season, turmeric acreage rose to 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from the prior season. Turmeric exports during April-June 2025 jumped by 3.12% to 47,949.56 tonnes from 46,498.64 tonnes in the same period of 2024. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down -0.09% to 16,875 and prices down 234. Support lies at 12,162, and a break below may test 11,968. Resistance is seen at 12,588, and a move above could test 12,820.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 11968-12820.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* While downside capped as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13154 Rupees dropped by -0.39 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.39% at 19,425 on low-level buying after recent weakness due to subdued domestic and export demand post the retail season. The price correction was largely attributed to the conclusion of the retail season and inactivity from foreign buyers. However, the downside was limited as the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5% is expected to support FMCG exports and domestic demand, providing a positive sentiment for the market. Despite these supports, pressure persists amid comfortable supply levels and lackluster export interest, with export business mostly fulfilled by existing stocks. Farmers currently hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3-4 lakh bags are anticipated to be traded by season-end, leaving around 16 lakh bags as carry-forward stock. Production estimates suggest cumin output for this season may range between 90-92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, due to reduced sowing areas. Gujarat and Rajasthan are estimated to produce 42-45 lakh and 48-50 lakh bags respectively.  Jeera exports during April-June 2025 dropped by 19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes from 73,666.09 tonnes in the same period of 2024. In June 2025, exports increased by 10.26% year-on-year to 16,322.06 tonnes but dropped by 29.67% compared to May 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest gained by 4.47% to 2,877, while prices rose 75. Support is now seen at 19,270, with a further test of 19,120 if broken. Resistance is likely at 19,530, and a breakout above could test 19,640.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19120-19640.

* Jeera gains on low level buying after prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* However downside seen limited after GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19463.45 Rupees dropped by -0.16 percent.

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