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Vision 2030 – Targets 3.5x revenue; >25% ROCEs

We attended Minda’s Analyst Meet and visited Spark Minda Technical Centre (SMIT) in Pune and its Flash Electronics plant; the management outlined its ‘Vision 2030’ at the Meet. Our visit highlighted Minda’s ongoing transformation from a traditional component maker into a systems solutions provider, underpinned by 3x higher R&D spend over the last 4Y, a growing IP portfolio (>310 in FY25), and strong EV-ready capabilities. Strategic priorities include expanding capacity with ~Rs20bn planned capex till FY30, scaling adjacencies via JVs (sunroofs with HCMF, switches with Toyodenso, EV components with SANCO), and deepening engagement with global OEMs across the 2W/3W, PV, CV and aftermarket segments. The roadmap aligns well with mobility megatrends, such as electrification, connectivity, software-defined vehicles, and premiumization, while Flash’s integration strengthens its electronics and powertrain capabilities in EVs along with a global footprint. Given that Minda is aiming for ~Rs175bn revenue (~3.5x FY25), >12.5% EBITDA margin (~11% in FY25), >25% RoCE by FY30 (~18% in FY25), and 0.3x net debt/equity (vs 0.6x in FY25), we believe it is well positioned as a structural compounder (refer to our initiating coverage note: A ‘Spark’ for Structural Outperformance); maintain BUY, with unchanged estimates/TP (Rs600), valuing it at 30x Sep-27E PER.

KTAs: 1) The mgmt stated its ambition of evolving into a tech-led systems solutions provider, targeting 3.5x revenue growth to Rs175bn by FY30 (40% 2Ws/3Ws, 25% PVs, 25% CVs, 10% aftermarket). Growth to be driven by 5 key pillars – investment in existing businesses (new die-casting, cluster plants), premiumization of products (sunroofs; advanced cockpits), investment in R&D (3x spend in 4Y; patents; SMIT tech center), new product launches (EV kits; switches), exports push (targets 10-15% of topline; Flash footprint in EU). 2) Minda aims for Rs21bn EBITDA (>12.5% margin vs 11% now), near debt-free (0.3x net debt/equity vs 0.6x as of FY25) status, and expanding RoCE at >25% (vs 18% in FY25) by FY30. 3) Rs20bn capex is planned for the next 5Y. Minda is setting up 2 facilities in die-casting (Pune, Greater Noida) and 1 in DIS (Pune), with further land acquisitions to strengthen growth ahead. 3) Minda is building adjacencies via global partnerships – sunroofs with HCMF Taiwan (Rs5bn revenue by FY30; ~2-3 clients at the conclusion stage), switches with Toyodenso Japan (Rs6.5bn revenue by FY30; 1 order already received), EV components with SANCO China (Rs3bn revenue by FY30), thus strengthening its right-to-win in premiumization/electrification trends. 4) Recent 49% stake in Flash expands Minda’s portfolio into body/powertrain electronics, with 8 manufacturing facilities (India + EU), thus enhancing its capabilities in EV-specific systems (PMSM/BLDC motors, DC-DC converters, control units) and positioning it as a global electronics player. 5) The mgmt outlined its preparedness for mobility megatrends of electrification (EV kits worth Rs35k for 2Ws/3Ws), connected vehicles (V2V, V2X, zonal controllers), autonomous (sensors, ADAS), and premium interiors (cockpits, HUDs, mood lighting). 6) Rising premiumization of the product portfolio, along with higher electronics/EV content, positions MDA to drive exports as a key growth engine.

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