MOSt Signature: Model Portfolio - September 2025 by Motilal Oswal Wealth Management

ICICI BANK
* ICICI Bank presents a strong long-term opportunity, driven by consistent execution, solid core performance, and a focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through its “One Bank One RoE” & “Customer-360” strategies.
* It reported another strong performance(Q1FY26) in the challenging environment, driven by healthy NIMs, other income, contained opex and in-line provisions. In PL & CC, the bank is confident about the quality of new originations and expects a pick-up in volumes.
* We estimate RoA/RoE to improve to 2.3%/17.3% by FY27, driven by Continued tech investments, confident PL/CC outlook, stable NPA’s and strong contingency buffer.
HDFC BANK
* HDFC Bank is well-positioned for a strong rebound, with FY25 marking a transition phase focused on regulatory compliance and consolidation.
* With loan growth guided to match the system in FY26 and exceed it in FY27, we estimate 10.7%/12.5% growth in FY26/FY27. Asset quality remains robust (GNPA/NNPA at 1.4%/0.5%), supported by strong provisioning buffer.
* Mgmt. is concentrating on enhancing customer engagement & service delivery to boost deposit inflows, which is evident from improvement in its deposit mkt. share to 12% (vs 10.3% in FY23).
* We project FY27E RoA/RoE at 1.9%/14.9%, supported by strong provision buffers & improving oper. leverage.
SHRIRAM FINANCE
* Shriram is reworking its lending strategy amid slower growth in vehicle finance & focusing on emerging segments such as renewable energy, merchant credit, fisheries, and supply chain Finance.
* A strategic shift to higher-yielding non-auto products strengthens diversification & supports blended yield improvement. Its expanded rural footprint (750+ branches) will aid disbursement growth and deepen customer penetration over the next 12–18 months.
* We estimate ~17% PAT CAGR over FY25–27E and RoA/RoE of 3.2%/16% by FY27, driven by expansion in MSME coverage & leveraging cross-selling opportunities maintaining strong growth prospects.
PAYTM
* Merchant subscriptions hit a record 13 million in Q1FY26, supported by quality devices & services, with over 1 million POS machines deployed, including new chip-enabled sound boxes enhancing customer retention.
* Paytm delivered a robust 1QFY26, reporting a net profit of Rs.1.2b (ahead of estimates) driven by lower DLG, collections, and ESOPrelated expenses
* PAYTM focuses on AI-driven solutions to boost processes & customer engagement, seeing a vast opportunity as 40-50% of 100 million potential merchants may need subs. services for business mgmt.
* With improving monetization in financial services and a cash buffer of Rs.161b, Paytm is poised to turn EBITDA positive by FY26.
NIVA BUPA
* Niva Bupa, the third-largest insurer in retail health space with a 10% market share in FY25, is one of the fastestgrowing players, achieving a CAGR of ~34% (FY22-25).
* GWP reported 28% YoY growth (ex-1/n impact) in 1QFY26, with retail health growing 32%. IFRS PAT rose to Rs.700m (Rs.360m in 1QFY25), and the combined ratio improved to 103.2% due to better expense control.
* Niva has a strong position to harness the growth opportunity, with a strategic global partner, a growing customer base, a diversified channel mix, & innovative product offerings. We estimate a 25% GWP and 32% PAT CAGR over FY25–28, driven by scale & operating leverage.
M&M
* M&M is well-positioned for long term growth, supported by a robust product pipeline planned by 2030 & strong volume CAGRs across key segments.
* M&M posted strong SUV growth, with 22% YoY volume increase to 152k units and gains in auto and LCV market share in Q1. SUV revenue mkt. share expanded 210bps YoY to 22.5%, consolidating its top position.
* E-SUV penetration rose to 7.8% (vs. 5.6% industry), with MM’s E-SUV market share at 31.8%, and leadership maintained in 3W EVs at 38.7%.
* MM is expanding in key export markets with positive reception for XUV 3XO. We estimate MM to post a CAGR of ~15%/14%/18% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25-27, with EPS growth of 15–20% & RoE at 18%.
NAM-INDIA
* NAM-India ranks among the top 10 AMCs, posting the fastest QAAUM growth at 27% YoY to Rs.6.1t (Jun’25).
* Market share rose 23bps QoQ to 8.5%—its highest since Jun’19—driven by steady net inflows, strong SIP momentum, and a healthy 46.9% equity mix.
* NAM is scaling its alternatives and offshore businesses, with Rs.81b in AIF commitments & Rs.166b in offshore AUM. These segments serve as incremental growth levers beyond core mutual fund franchise, gaining increasing traction from institutional and global investors.
* Strong traction in MF along with diversification in new segments will drive 14%/16%/15% CAGR in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY25-27E.
MAX HEALTHCARE
* MAXH is well-positioned as a leading multi-specialty hospital chain, with plans to add 3,600+ beds over 3–4 years through brownfield expansion and strategic acquisitions.
* MAXH continues its consistent growth, delivering 25% YoY revenue growth for 16 straight quarters with an average EBITDA margin of 27%.
* Diagnostics and home care also scaled well with 19–22% growth. Ongoing expansions, including new bed additions in Mohali, Lucknow, Saket, and Gurgaon, position MAXH for sustained momentum. We expect 21%/22%/26% revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR over FY25–27.
HINDUSTAN AERONATICS
* HAL delivered a strong 1QFY26 with healthy margins (26.6%) and a PAT beat, supported by lower provisions and higher other income. With GE engine supplies ramping up, Tejas Mk1A deliveries are set to accelerate, & orders for 97 more jets is expected soon.
* HAL also signed a landmark ToT deal with GE for indigenous F-414 engine production (~80% tech transfer), boosting self-reliance and supporting future programs like Tejas Mk2 and AMCA.
* In space, its INR5b ToT for SSLV with ISRO expands longterm growth avenues beyond defense.
* We project a 24% revenue CAGR and 17% PAT CAGR over FY25–28, supported by strong order book and indigenization.
KAYNES TECH
* Kaynes Semicon, a wholly owned subsidiary of Kaynes Technology ltd. is setting up an OSAT plant in Gujarat. It expects its semiconductor business to generate over ?1,500 crore in revenue by FY28.
* It have strong ties with Chinese component manufacturers and supply chain is likely to improve after Indian PM meeting with Chinese President. Mgmt. reiterated FY26 revenue guidance of ?45bn.
* Recent acquisitions have enhanced its global presence, with future focus on high-margin ODMs. We estimate a revenue/adj. PAT CAGR of 58%/74% over FY25–27, on back of improving oper. leverage, favorable order mix, continued investments in high-tech verticals.
J K CEMENT
* JKCE plans to double its grey cement capacity by FY30 through greenfield and brownfield projects across India. This expansion will strengthen its market position and enhance its pan-India presence.
* JK reported a strong performance in Q1FY26 with EBITDA surging 41% YoY to ?6.9b, driven by robust volume growth in grey/white cement (+17%/+9% YoY).
* Strong demand in Central and South India and on-track capacity expansion reinforce growth visibility.
* We estimate JKCE's revenue/PAT CAGR at 15%/31% over FY25-27, driven cost efficiency, regional strength, and sustained execution. We believe JKCE is well-positioned among mid-sized cement firms.
POLYCAB
* The Cables & Wires (C&W) business saw healthy demand and margin gains, while the FMEG segment turned profitable, aided by richer mix and better cost absorption.
* Every product category of FMEG saw gross margin expansion. In this segment, mgmt. target is to grow 1.5-2x of the industry growth rate and achieve an EBITDA margin of 8-10% by FY30.
* We estimate FY25–28E revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 18%/21%/20% as we remains positive on domestic C&W demand, supported by infrastructure push, private capex, and real estate recovery.
COFORGE
* COFORGE has reiterated its target of reaching USD2b revenue by FY27, driven by strong organic momentum and cross-selling opportunities from Cigniti.
* Coforge remains a top pick with strong large-deal momentum and resilient client spending. It targets 20+ deals above USD20m in FY26 (five signed so far), with a healthy ~40–45% win rate in proactive proposals.
* Despite uneven industry demand, clients are funding highRoI transformational programs, aligning with its solutiondriven approach. In-organic opportunity & sector diversification supporting growth, we expect revenue/adj. PAT to grow by 33%/62% YoY in 2QFY26.
RADICO KHAITAN
* Radico Khaitan is well poised for long-term growth through aggressive expansion in the premium & luxury spirits segment, leveraging strong brand with leading products like 8PM, Magic Moments, & Rampur Single Malt.
* It commands an 8% mkt. share in Prestige & Above (P&A) segment, with rising consumer premiumization.
* It reported a robust 1QFY26 standalone net sales increase of 32% YoY to ?15.1b (above estimates). Total volume rose 38%, driven by 41%/52% growth in premium & above/regular volumes to 3.8/5.4 million cases.
* We estimate revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 16%/22%/30% over FY25-FY28, supported by margin expansion due to premiumization & operating leverage.
ETERNAL
* Blinkit’s NOV (INR92b) surpassed food delivery (INR89b) for the first time in a full quarter. With a value-conscious customer base, it focuses on speed, assortment, support, and price. Over the next 2–3 quarters, it will shift from a marketplace to an inventory-ownership model.
* Quick commerce losses appear to have bottomed out, with Blinkit’s EBITDA margin improving to -1.8% inQ1FY26 (from -2.4% in 4QFY25), despite aggressive expansion.
* We see Eternal as a generational play on retail and food delivery disruption & project over 15% NOV growth in FY26, supported by the long-term potential of Blinkit as a generational opportunity in retail, grocery, and ecommerce disruption.
BHARTI AIRTEL
* Bharti Airtel is well-positioned for long-term value creation, supported by its strong premiumization strategy, Airtel Africa’s digital & financial services growth and margin expansions.
* With capex intensity expected to decline in FY26 (following lower FY25 India capex of ~?300b), Bharti is likely to generate robust free cash flows of ~?1t over FY26-27E, enabling balance sheet strength and improved shareholder returns.
* We model a 14%/17% CAGR in Bharti's consolidated revenue/EBITDA (FY25–28E) driven by an expected ~15% India wireless tariff hike (Dec'25), faster home broadband growth, & continued strong double-digit growth in Africa.
VISHAL MEGA MART
* Vishal Mega Mart is one of India’s largest offline-first value retailers, operating 696 stores across 458 cities, with ~72% in Tier 2+ India. VMM aims to add 100+ stores per year across 1,250+ Tier 2+ towns & untapped Tier 1 cities, supported by robust store-level economics.
* VMM’s mix—Apparel (44%), FMCG & GM (~28% each)— with 73% revenue from private brands, drives footfall, wallet share, and TAM expansion. With 50% RoCE, & double-digit SSSG, VMM enjoys strong store-level profitability & self-funded expansion through disciplined, asset-light operations.
* We expect revenue/PAT CAGR of 19%/24% over FY25–28, driven by steady store additions & margin gains. Forecast cumulative OCF/FCF of ?32b/?23b ensures ample internal funding, while private label scale & operating leverage further enhance profitability.
INDIGO
* Management reaffirmed double-digit ASK growth for FY26, with seasonal moderation in 2Q but a strong ramp-up expected in 2H, aided by new aircraft inductions, rising international mix (~30% of ASKs), and higher MICE and wedding demand.
* IndiGo is focused on delivering affordable, reliable, and ontime travel, with disciplined growth, cost control, and value creation.
* INDIGO’s focus on cost efficiency, MRO expansion, and reduced reliance on damp leases should support profitability. We expect revenue/EBITDAR/Adj. PAT CAGR of 9%/13%/18% over FY25-27.
TIME TECHNOPLAST
* TIME is the world’s largest manufacturer of large-size plastic drums, holding a 55%+ mkt share in India & strong presence in 10 countries. It pioneered intermediate bulk containers in India, now ranks 3rd globally & is 2nd largest maker of TypeIV composite LPG/CNG cylinders.
* We are optimistic about TIME’s value-added composite products, its stable industrial packaging business & strong financial discipline. With estimated annual FCF of ? 4B+, the company aims to achieve net cash status by FY27E, supported by robust OCF/EBITDA (~60%).
* We estimate a CAGR of 15%/16%/23% over FY25–28E, driven by robust growth in the value-added products (VAP) segment and strong cash flows.
SRF
* SRF is well-placed to benefit from evolving global regulations under the Kigali Amendment and shifting consumption trends toward low-GWP refrigerants. Its fully backwardintegrated operations and strong global distribution provide structural advantages.
* For FY26, SRF plans a capex of ~Rs.22–23b, which may rise during the year. Over the past 18 months, it achieved a 30% capacity increase through debottlenecking.
The chemicals segment is set to sustain momentum, supported by new plant ramp-ups, a strong order book, stable refrigerant demand, and rising PTFE sales. Packaging margins should improve, backed by value-added products. We model a revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT CAGR of 16%/30%/42% over FY25–27E.
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