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Market Update

Nifty : 25,069.20 -44.80 (-0.18%)

Sensex : 81,785.74 -118.96 (-0.15%)

* Equity benchmark Nifty ended slightly lower after an eight-session winning streak as investors turned cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision this week. In contrast, the broader market witnessed strong buying, particularly in real estate, PSU banks, and defense stocks. The advance-decline ratio on the Nifty 500 stood at 3:2, reflecting a shift in interest toward mid- and small-cap counters.

* On the positive side, domestic trade deficit narrowed to $26.49 billion in August from $27.35 billion in July despite US announced 50% tariff on Indian goods. Nifty slipped 44 points, or 0.2%, to close at 25,069.

* Real estate stocks outperformed, with the Nifty Realty Index climbing 2.4% after SEBI reclassified them as equity instruments—opening the door for index inclusion, higher mutual fund allocations, and greater institutional participation. Godrej Properties, Lodha, AB Realty, Sobha, Brigade, and Oberoi Realty rose 2–3%, while Anant Raj jumped over 10% to Rs.589 on reports of a possible 20-year tax exemption for data center developers.

* The Nifty Defense Index advanced 0.7% after reports that the Indian Air Force (IAF) has sought Defence Ministry approval to procure 114 ‘Made in India’ Rafale fighter jets, to be built by Dassault Aviation in collaboration with domestic aerospace companies. HAL gained 1% to Rs.4,795, while Paras Defense, BDL, Midhani, and Astra Micro added 1–4%.

* Globally, European markets rallied, while Asian equities ended mixed as investors awaited the Fed’s upcoming policy verdict.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty index opened flattish and clustered between the previous day’s range. It respected 25050 as support suggesting that bulls are in control yet facing resistance at the neckline near 25150 zones.

* It formed an inside bar on daily frame and has been making higher lows from the last six sessions. Now it has to hold above 25050 zones for an up move towards 25250 then 25350 zones while supports can be seen at 25000 then 24900 zones.

Derivative Outlook:

* Nifty future closed negative with losses of 0.14% at 25169 levels. Positive setup seen in SBI Cards, NHPC, Tube Investments, Siemens, HUDCO, Titaghar Rail System, RVNL, BDL, DLF and Tata Chemicals while weakness in Biocon, Bandhan Bank, Marico, UPL, Torrent Pharma, SRF, Titan, Coforge, Infosys and TCS.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 25100 then 25500 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 25000 then 25100 strike. Call writing is seen at 25100 then 25150 strike while Put writing is seen at 25100 then 25050 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 24700 to 25300 zones while an immediate range between 24900 to 25200 levels

Global Market Update

* European Market - European equities rose as global stocks hovered near records and investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision later this week. J Sainsbury Plc rose 6.3% after terminating talks to sell its Argos unit.

* Asian Market - Asian markets struggled on Monday as traders geared up for an expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, while more weak data showed China's economy continues to struggle.

* US Data - Empire Manufacturing data.

* Commodity - Crude oil prices rose marginally to above $67/bbl following a large Ukrainian drone attack targeting Russian oil infrastructure.

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