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Nifty :24888

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

• Indian equity benchmarks closed on a negative note amid weak global cues and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. The Nifty settled at 24888 down -1.01%. Market breadth was in favor of declines, with an A/D ratio of 1:3 where broader markets underperformed. Sectorally, barring Health care all sectors closed in red, where Realty, Consumer Durable and Oil & Gas were the laggards,

Technical Outlook:

• Nifty started the day on a positive note where profit booking near previous session’s high triggered and after the breach of 25000 the down move accelerated making lower-high-low to close the session near day’s low. This led to the formation of sizeable bear candle, signaling extended breather.

• Gift Nifty indicating gap down opening amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that resulted into sharp rise in brent crude oil prices (up 12%) trading at $77. Historically, we have observed that such geopolitical scenarios result into near term volatility wherein possibility of knee-jerk reaction cannot be ruled out. However, once the initial anxiety surrounding the event subsides, market sentiment will improve significantly, often leading to a notable rebound and garner decent return in subsequent months.

• Contrary to our expectations, the Nifty failed to witness follow through strength to the contracting triangle and filled the runaway gap on closing basis. Consequently, index closed below previous sessions low after 7 sessions, indicating pause in upward momentum. Going ahead, to pause the ongoing corrective bias, index need to decisively close above previous sessions high. Else continuation of corrective bias wherein strong support is placed at 24200 levels.

• Structurally over past 20 sessions of index has retraced merely 23% of preceding 24 sessions 16% up move. Slower pace of retracement indicating robust price structure. Therefore, any decline from hereon should be used as buying opportunity.

• On the broader market front, after such a sharp upmove index is undergoing healthy consolidation.

• Key monitorable which would provide cushion to the ongoing up move:

• a. Further weakness in US Dollar index.

• b. FII's inflow

• c. Bilateral Trade Agreement between India and US

• The index closed below 25000 mark which makes us revise our support base at 24200 which 80% retracement of the rally from (23935-25222).

Nifty Bank : 56082

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

• The Bank Nifty extended its breather for the fourth session amid profit weak global cues . The index settled at 56 ,082 , down 0 .67 % . The Nifty Pvt Bank index mirroring the benchmark, closed the day on a negative note at 27779 , down 0 .79 % .

Technical Outlook :

• The Bank Nifty extended its breather for the fourth session amid profit booking making lower -high -low and closed the session near session’s low and made a red candle, signaling prolongation of consolidation .

• Bank Nifty is trading in rising channel where the index in Thursday’s session where the touched the lower band of the channel . To resume the uptrend the index, need to decisively close above previous sessions high where the implied target of the consolidation range comes at 58800 which coincides with upper band of the rising channel . Meanwhile, on account of breach of 55700 which is 20 - day EMA strong support is placed at 55000 , which marks the 80 % retracement of the recent up - move (54 ,442 –57 ,049 ) . Any, decline from current levels would offer incremental buying opportunities .

• Structurally, the Bank Nifty is witnessing an elongation of rallies followed by shallow retracements, signifying a robust price structure . The April months up -move of 14 % is stronger compared to the March month’s 9 % rise . Additionally, the declines are becoming shallower, with the April months decline being 4 . 6 % versus 5 . 4 % in March 2025 after recent 7 % upmove we expect same rhythm to continue where the current decline should be seen as buying opportunity .

• Underperforming the benchmark the PSU Bank index witnessed profit booking for the third session and closed on a negative note . The index broke out from an eleven -month falling trendline on 19th May and, since then, has been forming a higher-high-low structure, indicating strong upside momentum . While the Bank Nifty is trading at all -time high, the PSU Bank index is still trading ~14 % below its all -time high, presenting a compelling case for a catch -up move . Meanwhile, immediate support on the downside is placed at 6 ,700 , which is the 38 .20 % retracement of the rally from 7 th April 2025 to 9 th June 2025.

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